Manchester City vs Leipzig

Pep Guardiola's side will battle for top spot in Champions League Group G at the Etihad Stadium on Wednesday. Backed by data, we predict and preview Manchester City's match against RB Leipzig.

Manchester City are strongly predicted to win their home game against RB Leipzig with a 70.2% chance of getting all three points, according to the supercomputer in 10,000 simulations.

No player has completed more crosses so far this season than Jérémy Doku (17), who has played just 146 minutes in the first four matchdays of the Champions League.

No player has created more chances in the UEFA Champions League this season than Leipzig's David Raum (15) and he also boasts the highest total of expected assists in the competition (2.1 expected assists and two assists).

Match Preview

Manchester City can secure first place in Group G when they welcome RB Leipzig to the Etihad Stadium on Wednesday.

Manchester City and Leipzig have already managed to reach the knockout stage of the Champions League, with the hosts needing only a draw in Tuesday's game to secure top spot in the group.

Leipzig have a pretty tough task ahead of them, and if they hope to overtake Pep Guardiola's side in Group G, they'll need to beat Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium, which has been the site of their last 28 home games

European crown

Where the game remains unbeaten, they need to keep their hopes of promotion alive with this game.

The game will also bring back certain unpleasant memories as Leipzig were thoroughly beaten 0-7 in the second leg of the European crown round of 16 in March 2023 in their final season. That game was one of Pep Guardiola's victories in European crown matches with the biggest point spread (three times) and was also one of City's biggest victories in European matches (also a 7-0 win in March 2019 against Schalke 04).

The presence of Erling Haaland in City's line-up will also scare Leipzig, with the prolific Norwegian international having already scored more goals against the Bundesliga side than any other, with 11 goals in seven appearances. Leipzig are the only opponents that Harland has scored five goals in a single game in his club career, which came in that 7-0 victory earlier this year.

Manchester City should go into the game full of confidence, having maintained an unbeaten streak in the Champions League with 17 consecutive matches unbeaten (12 wins and 5 draws), with their most recent loss coming against Real Madrid in May 2022 (semi-final second leg). In the history of the European crown, Manchester United are the only English team to maintain a longer unbeaten run in the league (25 consecutive matches without defeat between September 2007 and May 2009).

However, the performances of Savi Simmons should give Leipzig fans hope, with the 20-year-old having been involved in 14 goals in all competitions this season. The Dutch international led the Bundesliga in assists, contributing seven, and has been in fine form since returning from his own loan spell at Paris Saint-Germain.

Simons has scored in Leipzig's last two European crown matches (two goals in total). Only one Dutch player under the age of 21 has scored in three consecutive European crown matches, Patrick Kluivert achieved this record for Ajax in 1995 (when he was 19 years old).

Harland was an injury doubt for the 1-1 draw with Liverpool but eventually came on and scored and he is likely to start again on Tuesday. Jack Grealish missed that game through illness but should return, although Kevin De Bruyne will take some time to recover from a thigh muscle injury. Both Matthews Nunes and Matteo Kovacic are doubts.

Meanwhile, Marco Ross must be certain of not being able to use the services of players such as El Chatil Bishop, Danny Olmo and Willie Oban, while Peter Gulacic, Benjamin Sesco and Timo Varner will face a race against time to be fit for Tuesday's opener.

Manchester City v RB Leipzig all-time meetings

This will be City's sixth Champions League game against Leipzig, having won three of their previous five (draw 1, loss 1). At home, they won by 6-3 (September 2021) and 7-0 (March 2023) scores.

Leipzig have lost their last four away European crown matches in England by a combined score of 20-3. They are seeking their first away win in England since February 2020, when they beat Tottenham Hotspur 1-0.

In that just-mentioned 7-0 victory in March, Harland became the first player to win the tournament, following Luiz Adriano in October 2014 (Donetsk Miners vs. Batyrus) and Lionel Messi in March 2012

(Barcelona v Leverkusen), the third player to score five goals in a European crown match.

Recent performance

City's draw with Liverpool kept them unbeaten in seven games in all competitions and have only failed to score in two games so far this season, losing 0-1 to Newcastle United and Arsenal in the EFL Cup and European crown.

Leipzig's 1-2 loss away to Wolfsburg on Saturday, their third defeat in all competitions, was not ideal preparation for them, and they face a tough trip on Tuesday.

However, Leipzig have won two of their European crown away games this season (3-1 against Janket and 2-1 against Red Star Belgrade) and a surprise win here would tie their longest away winning streak in the competition (previously three games between November 2017 and November 2019).

The supercomputer believes Manchester City have a 70.2% chance of locking up top spot in Group G after winning on Tuesday. After running 10,000 simulations, the odds are in their favor that they will win the top spot with a victory.

Leipzig achieved an unexpected win and three points in 12.5% of the cases, while they were able to get a draw at Etihad Stadium with 17.3% of the chances.

While both Manchester City and Leipzig advanced to the round of 16, the chances of the two teams advancing to the later stages vary greatly. Defending champions Manchester City have a 29.5% chance of going on to win the title and are the favorites over Bayern Munich (16.6%) and Real Madrid (13.5%), but Leipzig have only a 7.9% chance of reaching the final in the simulation test and only a 3% chance of winning the European crown.

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