AC Milan vs Borussia Dortmund

AC Milan v Borussia Dortmund: A Short View

The supercomputer predicts that AC Milan have a 48.4% chance of winning (Dortmund have a 27.8% chance) when they take on Borussia Dortmund in a game that will be played at the San Siro Stadium on Tuesday for a Champions League match.

AC Milan this season in

European crown

Only two goals were scored in the match, making it one of the lowest scoring teams in the first four rounds of the competition, second only to Benfica (who scored only one goal).

If Dortmund win, Edin Terzić will become the youngest coach to beat AC Milan in a Champions League match since Pep Guardiola in November 2011 at Barcelona.

Match Preview:

Borussia Dortmund have a point from their first two matches in Group F and are in crisis, having first lost 0-2 away to Paris

Saint-Germain and then drew 0-0 at home to AC Milan. However, after consecutive defeats to Newcastle United, they will face the Rossoneri side in Tuesday's round-robin match, where they are expected to progress to the knockout stages.

In the third round, Felix Niemecha's brilliant goal helped Dortmund at St. James'

A hard fought win for Park; goals from Niklas Falklug and Julian Brandt helped them to a 2-0 win in their latest European match. A win in Italy for Edin Terzić's side would ensure their place in the last 16, having maintained a solid defense in European competition.

All in all, this will be a highly-anticipated match. AC Milan have a higher chance of winning, but Dortmund have been playing well in recent matches, and they have the ability to break down their opponents' defenses and win in Italy.

In fact, Dortmund have not conceded a goal in their last three Champions League games and they are on course to go on a run of four consecutive matches without conceding a goal in this season's competition, the last time they have done so since April-October 2014 during Jurgen Klopp's reign. They have picked up three clean sheets in four outings in European competition, the same number they have managed in 12 Bundesliga matches this season.

Although they were shaky defensively last weekend, Dortmund ended a three-game losing streak in the Bundesliga with a thrilling 4-2 comeback victory against Borussia Mönchengladbach. Terzić will be hoping for another equally shocking attacking performance on Tuesday.

Borussia Dortmund are at their best on the European stage against teams in transition, with only Bayern in the Champions League this season

Munich (17), Real Madrid and AC Milan (15 each) surpassed their 13 direct attacks, while no team was able to surpass their two goals in such situations.

Defensively, Dortmund will once again rely on 34-year-old central player Mats Hummels, who has the most interceptions and steals in Champions League matches this season (24 in total). He is also one of only three players to reach double figures in both metrics, the other two being AC Milan's Fikayo Tommori and Galatasaray's Abdulkerim Baldacci.

Dortmund will not be able to use Nyamicha in their upcoming group matches as the midfielder is injured, but they are hopeful that attacking duo Karim Adeyemi and Sebastian Haller will be able to play in the tournament as both of them missed last weekend's game due to illness.

If Terzić can lead Dortmund to victory, he will become the youngest coach to beat AC Milan in a Champions League match at the age of 41 years and 29 days, after Pep Guardiola led Barcelona to a 3-2 victory over AC Milan in November 2011 at the age of 40 years and 309 days.

AC Milan knew that if they lost this game and Paris Saint-Germain beat Newcastle in their other Group F game, they would not advance to the Round of 16. However, they managed to come back from a lead by Paris Saint-Germain in the 4th round with goals from Sejan Reo and Olivier Giroud to get a fantastic win that left their morale high.

However, those were the only goals scored in Europe this season by last season's Champions League semi-finalists Milan. This Stefano Pioli coached side have failed to reach their expected goals (xG) value in the Champions League this season (5.7 expected goals) and have actually scored only 2 goals, which is much lower compared to their derby rivals Inter Milan (8.8 expected goals, 5 goals).

This team wasn't at their best in Serie A on Saturday, but they still beat Fiorentina 1-0, with Fernandez scoring a penalty. The left-back has created eight chances in Champions League matches this season, which is the most of any AC Milan player (tied for first place with Cyran Reo and Rad Krunic).

In that game, Pioli was forced to field a much-changed side due to the injury crisis. Players such as Benasser, Kjaer and Kalulu all missed the game due to injuries, while Francisco Camarda was banned for his recent red card in the UEFA Youth League.

However, their biggest concern is the fitness of Leon, who is in doubt due to a hamstring injury. The exciting Portuguese playmaker leads the rest of AC Milan's squad in the 2023-24 Champions League in terms of chances created (8), finishing disposals (15) and advancing with the ball (34).

AC Milan v Borussia Dortmund head-to-head record:

These two teams drew 0-0 in their Round 2 match, but Tuesday's match will be AC Milan's first home game against Borussia Dortmund since the 2002-03 season, when the Red and Blacks lost 1-0 in the group stage.

Prior to that game, AC Milan had won two home games against Borussia Dortmund, 4-1 in the 1957-58 Europa League and 3-1 in the 2001-02 Europa League.

And that 2002-03 loss was AC Milan's only defeat in their last 16 home European matches against German teams, during which they won 11 and drew four.

Borussia Dortmund have generally struggled in Italy, drawing just one and losing four of their next five European matches since October 2008, when they beat Udinese 2-0 in the Italian Domestic Cup.

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